← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 81% | 84% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 8% | 7.50 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 7% | 8% | 15.00 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 661.00 | 326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1658.79 | 1339.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.29 | -37.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 58.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.31 | -1.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |