← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 66% | 74% | 1.44 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.50 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 13% | 10% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1514.26 | 1346.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.25 | -38.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 33.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| state index | -0.13 | -1.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |