← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 87% | 88% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 7% | 11.00 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 4% | 5% | 26.00 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2115.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1792.59 | 1356.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.94 | 2.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 61.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 0.66 |
| state index | 2.08 | -0.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |