← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Thu, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 53% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 21% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 286.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1332.46 | 1538.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.85 | 2.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 16.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.18 |
| state index | -1.56 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |