← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 86% | 89% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 7% | 10.00 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 5% | 4% | 23.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1697.04 | 1360.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.44 | 7.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| league points | 51.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.93 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |