← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 64% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 13% | 15% | 7.00 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 268.00 | 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1344.99 | 1652.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.62 | 10.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 16.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 1.85 |
| state index | -1.15 | 0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |