← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Wed, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 67% | 76% | 1.36 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 21% | 14% | 4.50 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 13% | 10% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 264.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1347.64 | 1733.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.91 | -13.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 16.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.92 |
| state index | -1.27 | 0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |