← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 40% | 40% | 2.40 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 290.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1377.44 | 1517.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 68.26 | 34.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |