← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 67% | 64% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 12% | 15% | 8.00 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 254.00 | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1360.31 | 1667.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.77 | -0.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 2.00 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 16.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 2.04 |
| state index | -0.99 | 0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |