← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 71% | 73% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 4.80 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 10% | 10% | 10.00 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 247.00 | 247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1470.65 | 1368.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.60 | -5.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 32.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.73 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |