← Eredivisie 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 44% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 29% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 276.00 | 4263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1374.78 | 1446.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.68 | -3.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |