← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 73% | 73% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.50 | value: +7% |
| Graafschap win | 10% | 8% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 304.00 | 819.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1690.54 | 1431.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.03 | -22.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| league points | 56.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.09 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |