← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 62% | 67% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.20 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 16% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 296.00 | 811.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1579.58 | 1438.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.61 | -4.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 40.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |