← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 64% | 63% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.50 | value: +12% |
| Graafschap win | 14% | 12% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 805.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1431.88 | 1793.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.60 | 15.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 34.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.13 |
| state index | -0.41 | 1.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |