← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 44% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 647.00 | 797.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1345.24 | 1421.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.09 | -2.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 25.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |