← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 71% | 64% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 28% | 5.50 | value: +52% |
| VVV Venlo win | 11% | 8% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3106.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1582.65 | 1370.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -64.15 | -7.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 47.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.61 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |