← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 49% | 59% | 1.95 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 25% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 790.00 | 3927.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1447.75 | 1494.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.53 | -14.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 33.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |