← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 54% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 21% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 385.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1373.97 | 1295.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.62 | 1.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| state index | -0.85 | -1.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |