← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 81% | 86% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 6% | 2% | 17.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 285.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1782.22 | 1375.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.69 | 13.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 54.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 0.62 |
| state index | 1.07 | -0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |