← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Fri, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 63% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.33 | value: +22% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 15% | 10% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 761.00 | 370.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1438.48 | 1302.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.23 | 4.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 27.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.44 |
| state index | -0.63 | -1.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |