← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 60% | 69% | 1.53 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 15% | 12% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2066.00 | 755.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1591.41 | 1432.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.44 | 8.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 39.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.08 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |