← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Fri, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 41% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +7% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 32% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 604.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1376.38 | 1364.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.94 | 3.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 13.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 0.92 |
| state index | -0.96 | -0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |