← Eredivisie 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 54% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 21% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4068.00 | 749.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1471.31 | 1444.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.35 | 10.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 22.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |