← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 38% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 35% | 29% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1309.40 | 1419.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.43 | -8.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 15.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.45 | 0.97 |
| state index | -1.29 | -0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |