← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 63% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 13% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 641.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1444.20 | 1799.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.47 | 11.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.55 |
| state index | -0.95 | 1.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |