← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 42% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 7933.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1392.59 | 1426.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.13 | -36.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 23.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.51 | -1.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |