← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 60% | 69% | 1.57 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 16% | 11% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2714.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1579.30 | 1461.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.35 | 6.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.12 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |