← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 36% | 37% | 2.70 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 35% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 0.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1360.34 | 1451.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.23 | 6.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| league points | 17.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.17 |
| state index | -1.14 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |