← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 47% | 56% | 2.00 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 25% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1447.62 | 1653.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.23 | -6.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 27.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.52 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |