← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 35% | 37% | 2.63 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 34% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2420.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1384.42 | 1463.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.43 | 15.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 20.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.23 |
| state index | -1.51 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |