← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 54% | 53% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 20% | 23% | 4.80 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3228.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1506.67 | 1380.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.85 | 27.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 45.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.81 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |