← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Fri, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 52% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2124.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1414.42 | 1377.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.82 | 21.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.81 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |