← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 37% | 43% | 2.50 | value: +7% |
| NEC win | 33% | 31% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 69.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1381.43 | 1540.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.91 | -37.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 24.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.31 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |