← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 87% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 6.50 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 7% | 3% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 988.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1707.66 | 1355.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.18 | -12.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 52.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.77 |
| state index | 0.74 | -1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |