← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 37% | 32% | 2.62 | fair |
| Heracles win | 35% | 39% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 34.00 | 1710.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1345.10 | 1430.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.27 | 17.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 17.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.04 |
| state index | -1.50 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |