← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 56% | 63% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 18% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1338.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1456.99 | 1341.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.69 | -20.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| state index | -0.69 | -1.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |