← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 45% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 7533.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1358.57 | 1374.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.37 | -0.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| league points | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.77 |
| state index | -1.19 | -1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |