← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 59% | 67% | 1.55 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 17% | 13% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1017.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1531.82 | 1408.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.70 | -47.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 44.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.81 |
| state index | -0.67 | -1.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |