← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 37% | 33% | 2.50 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 36% | 35% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 925.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1406.56 | 1505.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.87 | -19.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 29.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.31 |
| state index | -1.20 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |