← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 40% | 48% | 2.35 | value: +13% |
| VVV Venlo win | 32% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1010.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1416.79 | 1550.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.72 | -7.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.16 |
| state index | -1.00 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |