← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 76% | 82% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 8% | 3% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 645.00 | 918.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1713.93 | 1410.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.24 | -14.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| league points | 60.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 0.94 |
| state index | 1.25 | -1.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |