← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 40% | 55% | 2.30 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| VVV Venlo win | 33% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1436.70 | 1518.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.88 | 42.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 26.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |