← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 60% | 73% | 1.55 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 17% | 7% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 995.00 | 903.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1549.15 | 1402.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.36 | -33.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 32.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.93 |
| state index | -0.63 | -1.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |