← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 36% | 48% | 2.50 | value: +19% |
| Graafschap win | 35% | 26% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 896.00 | 1353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1403.43 | 1436.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.26 | 32.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| state index | -1.46 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |