← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Tue, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 46% | 40% | 2.05 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1456.15 | 1606.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.82 | -11.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.59 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |