← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 56% | 68% | 1.61 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.60 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 19% | 13% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 889.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1499.90 | 1412.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 61.86 | -36.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 30.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.96 |
| state index | 0.64 | -1.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |