← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 39% | 44% | 2.30 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 33% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 882.00 | 3896.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1424.41 | 1414.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.48 | 16.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| state index | -1.24 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |