← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Fri, Feb 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 61% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 15% | 19% | 6.00 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2981.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1487.47 | 1436.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.24 | -32.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 36.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |