← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 43% | 50% | 2.20 | value: +9% |
| Graafschap win | 29% | 21% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 869.00 | 2787.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1436.06 | 1561.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.32 | 62.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 26.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.83 |
| state index | -1.05 | 0.98 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |