← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 39% | 37% | 2.40 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 33% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.25 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 3876.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1427.88 | 1414.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.23 | 41.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| league points | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| state index | -1.36 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |